SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
North Carolina (16-15, 10-19 ATS) vs. Georgia Tech (19-11, 13-10-1 ATS)
North Carolina, which enters the ACC tourney at Greensboro Coliseum with its lowest seeding (10th) in school history, will have to run the table to get a shot at defending its national championship. The Tar Heels went a dismal 4-11 SU and ATS in their last 15 games, including an 80-52 thumping at the hands of archrival and fourth-ranked Duke as a 15-point road pup in Saturday’s regular-season finale. Roy Williams troops went just 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS away from home this year, including 1-3 SU and ATS at neutral sites, where they alloweda whopping average of 87.7 ppg while scoring 79.3 ppg.
Georgia Tech, seeded seventh, finished the regular season on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid, including SU and ATS losses in its last two outings. In Saturday’s finale against Virginia Tech, the Yellow Jackets tumbled 88-82 as a five-point home favorite. Paul Hewitt’s squad went 3-8 in true road games in the regular season, but 2-1 SU and ATS at neutral sites, averaging 71.3 ppg on a stout 51.0 percent shooting, while allowing 64.0 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting.
Tech has cashed in eight of the last 11 clashes in this rivalry (6-5 SU), including four of the last five, taking both of this year’s meetings SU and ATS. On Jan. 16, the Jackets eked out a 73-71 road win getting 6½ points, and on Feb. 16, they blasted Carolina 68-51 as a six-point home chalk. The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral-site starts, 6-2 ATS in their last eight Thursday games and 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 coming off a SU loss, but they also own negative ATS streaks of 5-14 overall, 7-20 in the ACC and 4-10 against winning teams. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last five at neutral sites and 5-2 in their last seven on Thursday, but carry ATS skids of 2-6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 1-4 after a SU loss, 2-6-1 against winning teams and 1-3-1 after a non-cover.
Carolina is on “under” stretches of 17-5 overall, 11-2 after a SU loss, 9-2 after a non-cover, 5-1 against winning teams and 16-5 in the ACC. On the flip side, the over has hit in Georgia Tech’s last four games (all in the ACC). Finally, the total stayed low in both of this year’s Tar Heels-Yellow Jackets meetings, following “over” runs of 4-1 and 3-0.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
N.C. State (17-14, 14-13-1 ATS) vs. Clemson (21-9, 14-13 ATS)
North Carolina State shook off a five-game SU slide (1-4 ATS), all in the ACC, to finish the regular season on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge, including Sunday’s 66-54 win over Boston College as a two-point home chalk. The Wolfpack, seeded 11th, went 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) at neutral sites this year, averaging 64.0 ppg and giving up just 54.0, but the competition was hardly noteworthy: a lackluster Auburn squad, along with Akron and Austin Peay.
Clemson, the No. 6 seed, went 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in its last seven games, all in conference action, but it fell at Wake Forest 70-65 as a one-point road ‘dog Sunday to cap the regular season. The Tigers went 2-1 SU on neutral courts this year – beating Butler and Long Beach State, and losing to Texas A&M – but failed to cover in all three games, averaging 72.3 ppg and giving up exactly that same number of points.
Clemson has won five in a row against N.C. State, going 3-1-1 ATS in that span, including a 73-70 road win on Jan. 16, though the ‘Pack cashed as a five-point pup. The chalk is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes in this rivalry, and the SU winner is on a 10-1-1 ATS tear.
The Wolfpack are on a 4-8 ATS dive in their last dozen games and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, while the Tigers have failed to cash in their last eight neutral-site outings and are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. Clemson, though, does sport ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover and 5-2 coming off a SU loss.
The over is 21-10 in N.C. State’s last 31 games following a SU win, but the Wolfpack are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC) and 4-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. In addition, Clemson is on “under” rolls of 7-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 after a SU loss. In this rivalry, the January meeting cleared the 139-point posted price, ending a 3-0 “under” streak.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
Notre Dame (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS) vs. (16) Pittsburgh
The Irish advanced to the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament with Wednesday’s 68-56 rout of Seton Hall at Madison Square Garden, easily cashing as a 2½-point favorite for their fifth straight victory and sixth consecutive spread-cover. Notre Dame fell behind 9-2 to start the game, but dominated from there as star forward Luke Harangody (knee injury) saw his most extensive action in more than a month, finishing with game-highs of 20 points and 10 rebounds in 24 minutes.
Notre Dame has matched its season-long winning streak thanks to a renewed commitment defensively, as it has yielded just 56.6 ppg in the last five, with four opponents behind held to 60 points or less. Prior to this run, the Irish were surrendering 72.7 ppg.
Pitt, which got two byes into the quarterfinals by virtue of being the Big East’s No. 4 seed, closed the regular season on a three-game winning streak and went 8-1 SU (6-2 ATS) over its final nine contests. The only loss came at Notre Dame on Feb. 24, an ugly 68-53 whipping, with the Irish cashing as a one-point home underdog. During their 8-1 season-ending surge, the Panthers scored 70 points or more in seven of the eight victories.
These teams have split their last four meetings, with the Irish going 3-1 ATS. Notre Dame’s 15-point win over the Panthers two weeks ago started its current five-game winning streak.
In addition to cashing in six straight games overall (all in league play), the Irish are on ATS runs of 6-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Thursday. However, despite last night’s romp over Seton Hall, Notre Dame is still just 3-5 ATS in its last eight neutral-site contests. Pitt’s riding ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 15-5-2 against winning teams and 9-4-1 following a SU victory, but the Panthers have failed to cover in seven of nine at neutral sites.
Notre Dame sports “under” runs of 5-0 overall (all inside the Big East), 20-8 in conference, 7-0 at neutral sites, 8-1 after a SU win, 18-4 after a spread-cover and 9-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600. Similarly, the Panthers are on “under” runs of 4-1 after a victory, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 5-0 on Thursday. However, the “over” is on streaks of 7-2 for the Irish on Thursday, 5-1 for the Irish against winning teams and 5-1 for Pitt versus winning opponents.
Finally, these teams stayed way under the posted total in their one battle this season, ending a 5-0 “over” stretch in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cincinnati (18-14, 8-19 ATS) vs. (7) West Virginia (24-6, 13-16 ATS)
After surviving a scare in Tuesday’s opening round of the Big East tournament, edging Rutgers 69-68 as an eight-point favorite, Cincinnati pulled off an upset in Wednesday’s second round, rallying from a 10-point halftime deficit to eliminate Louisville 69-66 as a six-point ‘dog. The Bearcats shot just 35 percent from the floor, but dominated the glass, outrebounding the Cardinals 46-28, including 21-8 on the offensive end. After finishing the regular season losing five of six (SU and ATS), Cincinnati will try to win three in a row for the first time since Jan. 2.
West Virginia won three straight to close the regular campaign (2-1 ATS), capped by Saturday’s 68-66 overtime thriller at Villanova with the Mountaineers cashing as a three-point pup. The Mountaineers play stellar defense, allowing just 64.8 ppg this season and limiting the opposition to 42.9 percent shooting from the floor.
In the only meeting this season, West Virginia edged the Bearcats 74-68 in Morgantown, falling well short as a 13-point chalk. Cincinnati has won four of the last six series clashes overall, cashing in three straight and four of the past five.
Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven as a neutral-site underdog, but otherwise is on ATS skids of 8-23 overall, 6-21 against Big East teams, 9-25 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600 and 8-21 against teams with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine Thursday contests, but they’re just 3-6 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points this season.
The Bearcats have stayed below the posted total in five of seven neutral-site contests, but they’re otherwise on “over” runs of 10-4 on Thursday and 6-2 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, West Virginia has topped the total in six of nine overall and six of eight on Thursday. In this series, the “over” has been the play in four of the last six meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City)
Oklahoma State (21-9, 14-9-1 ATS) vs. (9) Kansas State (24-6, 16-8-1 ATS)
The Cowboys kicked off the postseason by pummeling archrival Oklahoma 81-67 as a seven-point favorite at the Sprint Center. Four players scored in double figures, highlighted by Keiton Page’s game-high 24 points, as Oklahoma State shot a blistering 53.6 percent from the field. The Cowboys have won two in a row and six of their last eight, all SU and ATS and all in conference.
Kansas State stumbled to the finish line, dropping consecutive decisions last week to Kansas (82-65 as an 8½-point road underdog) and lowly Iowa State (85-82 as a 15-point home favorite). Those two defeats came on the heels of a seven-game winning streak. Also, prior to last week the Wildcats had been on a 15-4-1 ATS run, never once failing to cover in consecutive contests. K-State hasn’t had three straight non-covers since ending last year in a 0-7-2 ATS slump.
At neutral sites this season, Oklahoma State is now 4-1 SU and ATS, while the Wildcats are 3-1 (2-2 ATS). Also, the winner has cashed in each of the Cowboys’ last 24 lined games and each of Kansas State’s last five.
The Cowboys handed Kansas State one of its three home losses this season, winning 73-69 in Manhattan on Jan. 23 as a 9 ½-point underdog. Oklahoma State is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Oklahoma State is on a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 26-10-1 overall, 22-8-2 at neutral venues, 7-2 on Thursday and 21-10-1 against teams with a winning record. Despite coming up short in two games last week, the Wildcats are still on a 15-6-1 overall ATS roll, going 13-5-1 ATS against winning teams.
The Cowboys topped the total last night against Oklahoma, but the under is still 6-2 in its last eight at neutral venues, while K-State carries “under” trends of 3-1-1 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 versus winning teams. Finally, the last two meetings and four of the last six in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
Texas (24-8, 10-18 ATS) vs. Baylor (24-6, 15-8 ATS)
After eliminating Iowa State from the Big 12 Tournament on Wednesday night with an 82-75 win as a nine-point favorite, the Longhorns now get a rematch with the team that crushed them in the regular-season finale on Saturday. Texas has alternated wins and losses over its five games (1-4 ATS) but got drilled by the Bears 92-77 on Saturday, falling well short as a three-point underdog.
Baylor’s LaceDarius Dunn went for 30 points and six boards against the Longhorns as the Bears closed the regular season with four straight wins (3-1 ATS). Baylor has now taken three in a row from Texas (SU and ATS), including an 80-77 overtime win as a nine-point pup in Austin back on Jan. 30 and a 76-70 upset as 4½-point underdog in last season’s Big 12 tourney.
The underdog has cashed in seven of the last 10 in this rivalry.
The Longhorns had cashed in five straight neutral-site games prior to last night’s non-cover. In fact, they now sport negative ATS streaks of 3-16 overall, 5-21-1 against Big 12 foes, 3-14 against teams with winning records, 2-7-1 on Thursday, and 2-12 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Baylor carries nothing but positive ATS streaks into this one, including 15-7 overall, 17-5 in neutral-site games and 11-5 against opponents with a winning percentage better than .600.
Texas has topped the total in six straight neutral-site contests and eight of nine against teams with winning records. The Bears are on “over” runs of 13-5 overall, 12-4 in Big 12 play, 6-1 against winning teams and 11-2 versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600. In this rivalry, the “over” has cashed in six of the last seven meetings, including both matchups this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Penn State (11-19, 14-13-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota (18-12, 14-15 ATS)
The Nittany Lions finished dead last in the Big Ten standings with a 3-15 record (10-8 ATS), but after dropping their first 12 league contests they rebounded to split the final six, going 5-1 ATS (3-0 ATS last three). Penn State’s three wins came against Northwestern (twice) and Michigan, but it finished the regular season with narrow losses to No. 11 Michigan State (67-65 as a 12½-point road underdog) and No. 7 Purdue (64-60 as a six-point home pup). After a 75-70 loss at Minnesota in the Big Ten opener, the Nittany Lions scored 65 points or fewer in 12 of their final 17 games.
Minnesota finished in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten at 9-9 (7-11 ATS), but it won four of six (5-1 ATS) to close the regular season, capped by Sunday’s 88-53 rout of Iowa as a 14-point home favorite. The Golden Gophers split the cash in their first four league games, then dropped eight in a row ATS before covering in five of the final six. Take away an 83-55 loss at Michigan on March 2, and Minnesota stepped things up defensively down the stretch, holding its final five opponents to 52, 58, 59, 60 and 53 points.
Minnesota edged Penn State twice this season, winning 75-70 at home in the league opener and 66-64 in State College, Pa., on Feb. 6, but the Lions got the cash both times as 13-point and four-point underdog. Penn State has cashed in the last three meetings, following a 4-1 ATS run by the Gophers.
Penn State sports a trio of 5-1 ATS runs: overall (all in conference), after a SU defeat and when facing opponents with a winning record. Minnesota is also 5-1 ATS in its last six overall (all in league play and 6-1 ATS in its last seven after a victory of more than 20 points, but the Gophers are in pointspread slumps of 1-4 at neutral sites and 2-5 after a SU victory.
At neutral sites, the under is on runs of 5-2 for Penn State and 7-3 for Minnesota. Conversely, the over is on streaks of 10-1 for the Lions against winning teams, 5-1 for the Gophers versus winning opponents, 5-1 for the Gophers against losing teams and 4-1 for the Gophers after a SU victory. Finally, these teams had topped the total in 11 of 12 head-to-head meetings (including five in a row) before last month’s contest at Penn State barely stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and OVER
MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
Utah (14-16, 12-14-1 ATS) at UNLV (23-7, 18-10 ATS)
The Utes struggled with consistency throughout the season, never winning or losing more than three consecutive games, and they finished 7-9 SU and 7-8-1 ATS in the Mountain West. In fact, Utah split its final eight games (4-3-1 ATS), ending with a pair of losses to archrival BYU (71-51 as a 6½-point home underdog) and at Colorado State on Saturday (76-67 as a 2½-point road pup). With Saturday’s result, the Utes and Colorado State finished tied for fifth in the Mountain West, but the Rams got the higher seed in this tournament by virtue of sweeping the season series.
UNLV, which is looking to make the Big Dance for the third time in the last four years, closed the season strong, following up a three-game SU and ATS losing streak with four straight double-digit wins (3-1 ATS) to clinch the third seed in the Mountain West. However, those four victories – which were by an average of 23.8 ppg – came against teams (Colorado State, TCU, Air Force and Wyoming) that finished in the bottom half of the league with a combined conference record of 16-48. The Runnin’ Rebels, who get this tournament on their home floor, are 13-3 at the Thomas & Mack Center (8-6 ATS).
Utah surprisingly swept the season from the Rebels, winning 73-69 as an 11½-point road underdog and 66-61 as a four-point home pup. The Utes were the only Mountain West team to sweep UNLV and one of just two conference squads to beat the Rebels in Las Vegas. Still, the home team is 7-1 in the last eight meetings (6-1-1 ATS), and prior to its victory at the Thomas A&M in mid-January, Utah had lost six straight games at UNLV (3-2-1 ATS). Finally, the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS and the SU winner is 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Utah has cashed in six of its last eight after a SU defeat, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five on Thursday. The Rebels also have failed to cash in four of their last five on Thursday, but they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight when coming off a non-cover.
The Utes are on “under” runs of 7-2 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 after a SU defeat, but the Utes topped the total in five of seven Mountain West road games. Meanwhile, UNLV carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall (all in conference) and 4-0 after a non-cover, but the Rebels are 6-1-2 “over” in their last nine on Thursday. Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams in Las Vegas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville, Tenn.)
Auburn (15-16, 12-11-2 ATS) vs. Florida (20-11, 14-12 ATS)
Auburn struggled in SEC play this year, winning consecutive games just once over its final 16 games as it notched SU and ATS victories at home against LSU on Feb. 27 and Mississippi State on March 3, before ending the season with Saturday’s 73-61 loss at Alabama as a five-point underdog. The Tigers, who finished fifth in the SEC West, won just three of 14 games away from home, going 1-7 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in SEC road games, giving up at least 80 points in six of those eight contests.
Florida’s chances of sneaking into the Big Dance are likely slim after it finished the season on a three-game SU losing skid (1-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 74-66 loss at Kentucky, though it cashed as an 11-point ‘dog. The Gators, who are the No. 4 seed in the SEC East, split their 14 road/neutral-site games (6-6-1 ATS in lined contests), averaging 69 ppg on neutral courts but allowing 68.2. However, Florida dropped three of its last four on the SEC highway (2-2 ATS).
The Gators have won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry (7-4-1 ATS), going off as the chalk in the last 11. However, Auburn has covered the last two clashes, including a 78-70 setback in Gainesville on Feb. 18 as a nine-point underdog.
The Tigers are on ATS rolls of 9-3-2 overall, 19-6-2 in the SEC and 4-0-1 after a SU loss, but they’re just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site starts. The Gators have covered in 12 of their last 16 Thursday outings, but they are 3-5 ATS in their last eight overall and are mired in a 7-16 pointspread funk coming off a SU loss.
Auburn is on “over” stretches of 7-2 overall (all inside the SEC), 11-5 on neutral floors, 4-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 on Thursday and 5-2 coming off a SU loss. The over is also 11-4 in Florida’s last 15 Thursday games, and last month’s meeting between these two went high, following a 5-1 and 3-0 “under” run in this rivalry. On the flip side, the Gators sport “under” streaks of 19-9 overall, 4-1 on neutral courts and 8-3 coming off a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
NBA
Chicago (31-32, 30-31-2 ATS) at Orlando (45-20, 34-30-1 ATS)
Two Eastern Conference teams heading in opposite directions hook up at Amway Arena where the Magic look to extend a six-game winning streak and hand the Bulls their sixth straight loss.
Chicago dropped its fifth in a row SU and ATS on Tuesday, getting hammered by the Jazz 132-108 as a five-point home underdog, ending a woeful four-game homestand. The Bulls have been outscored by 15.4 ppg during their five-game slide, averaging 100.4 ppg (47.3 percent shooting) while giving up 115 ppg (51 percent). In fact, seven straight opponents have scored in triple digits against Chicago. The Bulls kick off a four-game road trip with this game, and they’ve dropped two in a row SU and ATS on the highway.
Orlando followed up Sunday’s thrilling, last-second 96-94 home win over the Lakers with Tuesday’s 113-87 rout of the Clippers, cashing as a 12½-point home favorite. Five of the Magic’s six victories during their winning streak have been double-digit blowouts, winning by margins of 26, 10, 27, 21 and 16 points. Also, Orlando has won five straight at home (4-1 ATS). Overall, Stan Van Gundy’s squad has won eight of its last nine (6-3 ATS).
These teams have split two meetings this season, both in Chicago. The Bulls took the first 101-93 as a 3½-point underdog on Jan. 2, but got destroyed in the rematch five weeks later 107-87 as a 4½-point road chalk. Orlando is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games when coming off a double-digit home defeat, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 0-5 overall, 0-4 against winning teams and 9-25 versus Southeast Division foes. Conversely, the Magic are on ATS upticks of 4-1 at home, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 against the Central Division and 5-1 versus teams with a losing record. However, Orlando has failed to cover in four straight marquee Thursday contests.
Chicago is on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 after a SU defeat, 44-21 following a double-digit home loss and 4-0 after a day of rest. However, the Bulls also carry “under” streaks of 4-0-1 on Thursday and 4-1 against Southeast Division foes, while the Magic are on low-scoring surges of 19-6-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home, 9-3 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 versus the Central Division, 14-5 on Thursday and 46-18-1 after a day off.
Finally, the last five Bulls-Magic clashes in Orlando have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
